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Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 EPS beat while revenue was slightly below consensus: Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.15 vs S&P Global consensus $1.11*, while total revenues were $304.9M vs $308.3M*; loss ratio improved to 10% on $48M reserve release and strong cures (52%).
- Increased 2025 capital return guidance to approximately $400M; declared a $0.21 quarterly dividend and repurchased $85M in Q2 (2.4M shares), with $262M buyback capacity remaining as of July 25.
- Credit and capital strength remain key: PMIERs sufficiency at 165% (~$2.0B above requirement), delinquency rate of 2.32%, and CRT program provides ~$1.9B PMIERs credit.
- Pricing discipline intact; management expects base premium rate to stabilize around 2024 levels; macro watch items include affordability and tariff uncertainty.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Capital returns: “We are increasing our expected capital returns for 2025 to approximately $400 million,” alongside Q2 returns of $116M (dividends and buybacks).
- Credit performance: Reserve release of $48M on strong cure performance (cure rate 52%) drove a 10% loss ratio; “credit performance remains strong and we are well reserved for a range of scenarios.”
- Pricing and underwriting: “Our pricing engine Rate360 allows us to deliver competitive pricing on a risk‑adjusted basis,” with base premium rate stabilization around 2024 levels.
What Went Wrong
- Modest top-line softness vs Street: Revenues of $304.9M trailed consensus $308.3M*; net income declined YoY (to $168M from $184M) on lower reserve release versus the unusually favorable prior year.
- Sequential persistency slippage and NIW down YoY: Persistency fell to 82% (from 84% in Q1) and NIW at
$13B was modestly below 2Q24 ($14B) amid affordability headwinds. - Macro uncertainty: Management flagged tariff uncertainty and regional HPA softness (e.g., Cape Coral) as watch items impacting outlook confidence in certain geographies.
Financial Results
Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus.
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are increasing our expected capital returns for 2025 to approximately $400 million.”
- “Our pricing engine Rate360 allows us to deliver competitive pricing on a risk‑adjusted basis.”
- “Strong embedded equity combined with our effective loss mitigation efforts helped drive robust cure performance with a cure rate of 52%.”
- “Our PMIERs sufficiency was 165% or $2 billion above PMIERs requirements at the end of the second quarter.”
Q&A Highlights
- Regional HPA soft spots and seasoning: Management highlighted isolated softness (e.g., Cape Coral) but noted portfolio exposure is de minimis and pricing adjusts for forward HPA; borrowers still prioritize mortgage payments given resilient labor market and balance sheets.
- MI TAM and capital planning: CEO expects 2025 MI TAM similar to 2024 (~$300B), with capital returns sized to macro conditions and performance; raised 2025 total capital return to ~$400M.
- Delinquency outlook and cures: New delinquency rates consistent with pre‑pandemic levels; embedded HPA remains a meaningful mitigant to loss and supports cures; claim rate assumption on new notices remains a prudent 9%.
- Regulatory updates: Continued active engagement with GSEs/FHFA; MI premiums are tax deductible again.
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted diluted EPS $1.15 vs $1.11*; total revenues $304.9M vs $308.3M*.
- Estimate dynamics: EPS outperformance was supported by a $48M reserve release and higher NII, while revenue modestly trailed amid stable net premiums; if reserve releases normalize, EPS sensitivity will hinge on delinquency trends and NII trajectory.
Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality beat: EPS topped Street despite a modest revenue shortfall, driven by strong cures and NII; reserve releases remain a key swing factor.
- Credit remains favorable: Delinquency rate at 2.32% with robust cures supports continued low loss ratios; portfolio risk metrics remain strong.
- Capital return upgraded: New 2025 capital return target of ~$400M, with buybacks and dividends underpinned by 165% PMIERs sufficiency.
- Pricing steady: Base premium rate expected to stabilize around 2024 levels, suggesting resilient margin framework if credit trends hold.
- Watch macro/tariffs & affordability: Management highlighted policy uncertainty and affordability as demand headwinds; NIW seasonality helped in Q2 but remains sensitive to rates.
- Dividend maintained: Quarterly dividend at $0.21 sustained; additional buyback capacity ($262M remaining as of 7/25) provides flexibility.
- Reinsurance/CRT supports capital: ~$1.9B of PMIERs credit from CRT enhances capital efficiency and cushions stress scenarios.
Additional detail and cross-references:
- Consolidated Statement of Income and key ratios for Q2 2025, Q1 2025 and Q2 2024.
- Balance sheet, ROE, adjusted ROE, and PMIERs sufficiency.
- Operating highlights (NIW, persistency, reserve release) and capital actions.
- Earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A excerpts informing qualitative assessments.
Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus.